URL: https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-mission-statement-work-programme/facts4eufuture_en (may have been updated since May 2023)
The EU faces a series challenges resulting from four global transformative trends:
These transformations are complex and rapid.
To produce credible responses, our policy makers will need more sophisticated analysis. This may allow them to anticipate change and be prepared for it.
We at the JRC are determined to provide this with this series of reports.
They provide an in-depth analysis of some of the key challenges. The reports view them through many different angles to better grasp their full complexity.
We are only at the beginning of a rapid period of transformation of our economy and society due to the convergence of many digital technologies. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is central to this change.
How people feel about fairness matters. It might influence their decisions and their happiness. The fairness report addresses some of the most pertinent fairness dimensions in relation to a fair, inclusive and social European Union.
Bringing together research from six JRC units, our report "Blockchain Now and Tomorrow" provides multidimensional insights into the state of blockchain technology.
The report analyses China's approach to attain a dominant position in international markets through a combination of industrial, research and innovation (R&I), trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) policies.
The report “Cybersecurity, our digital anchor” looks at a new “life-style of resilience" to the cyber threats. We all need to do our part for cybersecurity.
To make decisions about the future, it is important to understand how many people there will be in the future, and where they will live and work. The report helps us to know what to do, because it shows the consequences of changing different factors.
Current trends suggest that future road transport will be significantly different.
The report offers an evidence based analysis of the impact of technology on labour markets and skills.
Our report highlights the main challenges faced by cities and the people living within them currently and towards the future.
Advances in behavioural, decision and social sciences show that humans are not purely rational beings. As a result, this report brings new insights to political behaviour.
The recent years have also seen high levels of polarisation, the rapid spread of dis- and misinformation, a decrease in willingness to compromise, and sometimes outright attacks on democracy. Our report addresses these issues.
URL: https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-mission-statement-work-programme/facts4eufuture/cybersecurity-our-digital-anchor-european-perspective_en (may have been updated since May 2023)
Digital technologies empower us with great opportunities. They also make us more vulnerable.
The spread of digital technologies is contributing to improve the well-being of modern society.
They allow us to do things that were unthinkable 10 years ago. They give us the access to an enormous amount of knowledge.
However, they can also make us more vulnerable. Cyber attacks can shock our society. One attack can destroy your livelihood (e.g. identity theft). It can instantly affect millions of people (e.g. shutting down a power plant).
To defend our digitalised society requires a completely different, systemic approach to cybersecurity.
The report “Cybersecurity, our digital anchor” looks at a new “life-style of resilience" to the cyber threats.
We all need to do our part for cybersecurity.
With the COVID-19 pandemic came a large-scale move to teleworking and digital services. The coronavirus outbreak accelerated the digitalisation of our society.
Digitalisation now touches every aspect of our society. It exposes everyone’s daily life to cyber threats – directly or indirectly.
Cyber attacks can hit millions of people at once. As a result, cybersecurity is today a focal point of Europe security and stability.
We’re moving towards an open-data and interconnected society. A society with 25 billion connected things by 2021 (Gartner).
The potential number of victims and the risks to people’s life are high.
We need new approaches to cybersecurity, which rely on resilience and adaptability.
Cybersecurity is a framework. Everything, from the system design and policies to the usability and people’s attitude adds to securing our digital world.
It links to the evolution of technologies. This includes industrial and societal processes that need protection.
Cybersecurity requires a deep societal engagement and understanding - from the child playing with a toy to the policy maker shaping digital legislation.
Emerging new technologies will open up the digital world to new opportunities. Artificial intelligence, blockchain, quantum, etc. will also expose us to new cyber threats.
The digitalisation of our society implies that industrial sectors are interconnected. Weaknesses can spread from one sector to the others.
Cybersecurity policies need to be coherent and interoperable across sectors.
The threat of a “cyber Pearl Harbor” attack against the critical infrastructures of any country is very real.
Attackers are moving fast, do not abide by the rules and are not subject to any restrictions.
A European Union with a strong cybersecurity culture and technology can protect our digital sovereignty.
Cybersecurity - our digital anchor - a European perspective
This report adopts a multi-disciplinary approach.
It investigates on the “why the symptoms are there today” to predict how they will evolve in the future.
It does not have the pretence to remedies for all the problems of cybersecurity.
It tries instead to link the dots by
The report shows how the security of our digital world is the result of a collective effort.
As such, we all should do our part for cybersecurity.
Report: Cybersecurity - our digital anchor - a European perspective
URL: https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-mission-statement-work-programme/facts4eufuture/demographic-scenarios-eu-migration-population-and-education_en (may have been updated since May 2023)
To make decisions about the future, it is important to understand how many people there will be in the future, and where they will live and work.
As a population, we are ageing. How will be deal with having many more people over 65 than we have ever had before? How will we support them? Will it help to have more children or more immigration?
The report "Demographic Scenarios for the EU - Migration, Population and Education" helps us to know what to do, because it shows the consequences of changing different factors.
With the latest demographic understanding, policy-making will be better equipped to make decisions for the future.
This report gives concise, important messages about what demographic changes can and cannot do in shaping the future population and workforce of the EU. Knowing the impact of different changes gives a clear indication of which policy avenues are most worthwhile to pursue.
Demographic Scenarios for the EU - Migration, Population and Education
Demographic Scenarios for the EU - Migration, Population and Education
Facts4EUFuture - A series of reports for the future of Europe
Educating all girls is key for global population size - EU Demographic Scenarios
Increasing girls' education is key for the future of population growth in Africa and the worldIf trends continue as they are now, the world population...
Immigration and the ageing population - EU Demographic Scenarios
Higher fertility or more immigration are not enough to cope with the challenges of population ageingMore immigration would increase the labour force...
Impact of brain drain - EU Demographic Scenarios
If a country sees a large number of its highly-skilled workers go abroad to work, the remaining population will be older and have a lower potential...
Impact of intra-EU mobility - EU Demographic Scenarios
When EU citizens move towards western Europe in search of higher wages or better employment opportunities, it exacerbates population ageing and...
Living longer, leading more productive lives - EU Demographic Scenarios
Europeans are living longer, but they can also lead more productive livesToday, Europeans are expected to reach the age of 81 on average – that’s 9...
Smaller, better educated workforce - EU Demographic Scenarios
The EU's future labour force will be smaller and better educatedThe EU’s labour force is projected to fall from 245 million today to just under 215...
Working to support an ageing population - EU Demographic Scenarios
With an ageing population, the EU will need to support a higher share of people over age 65 than ever before. To do this, increasing labour force...
Current trends suggest that future road transport will be significantly different.
It is likely that we won't need to get any more to the gas station every week or so. Our cities won’t smell any longer. We will be able to see the blue sky more frequently.
It is also possible that we can make a different use of our garage, because we won’t need to own a vehicle.
When we need to get somewhere, we can rent a car or book a transport service. Or use a combination of different modes.
One of the available modes could be a new car concept:
But, the car would be only one of the available options. A car can be used only in limited circumstances. Otherwise there will probably be so many cars around that we will waste more time than today in traffic jams.
It is true that while waiting we can read something, do shopping, work or interact with others, but maybe better to do these things at home or outside.
In the end we could have cooler, smarter and more comfortable vehicles, but the overall system would be pretty much the same, just with more problems.
Do you want to have more information?
The Future of Road Transport - Implications of automated, connected, low-carbon and shared mobility
Report: The Future of Road Transport - Implications of automated, connected, low-carbon and shared mobility
Facts4EUFuture - A series of reports for the future of Europe
2 FEBRUARY 2022
202005_future_of_transport_covid_sfp.brief_.pdf
English
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21st century transport systems and policies - the future of road transport
New transport technologies, on their own, won't spontaneously make our lives better.We need to upgrade our transport systems and policies to the 21st...
Improve governance and involve people - the future of road transport
To ensure that the future of transport is cleaner and more equitable than its car-centred present, policymakers must:Improve governance systems...
More efficient, safer, eco-friendly and accessible transport systems - the future of road transport
We have an opportunity to move away from a transport system centred on car ownership.A new transport system can be:More efficient,Safer,Less polluting...
New technologies and business models - the future of road transport
A perfect storm of new technologies and new business models is transforming our vehicles, how we get around, our way of life.Smartphone apps put cabs...
URL: https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-mission-statement-work-programme/facts4eufuture/changing-nature-work-and-skills_en (may have been updated since May 2023)
Digitalisation, ever-increasing connectivity and other major trends are profoundly changing labour markets, affecting the quantity and quality of jobs, their location, as well as how and by whom they are carried out. These trends raise crucial questions for public policies in the areas of labour market, skills development, future of education and social protection systems.
Through our research and analysis, the JRC Changing nature of work and skills team aims to support policymakers in their efforts to manage these transformations and turn them into opportunities for all workers, societal groups, generations, EU Member States, and regions.
The changing nature of work and skills in the digital age
Building partnerships on the Future of Work
International Labour Organization - Building partnerships on the Future of Work
JRC Changing nature of work and education team
TeamThe JRC Changing nature of work and education team consists of a multidisciplinary group of researchers and policy analysts joining from different...
URL: https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-mission-statement-work-programme/facts4eufuture/future-cities-opportunities-challenges-and-way-forward_en (may have been updated since May 2023)
The majority of the global population currently live in urban areas, and this is expected to increase in the future.
The importance and role of cities is increasing recognised - the future of cities will greatly impact all of our futures.
Our report "The future of cities - opportunities, challenges and the way forward" highlights the main challenges faced by cities and the people living within them currently and towards the future.
It also discusses some of the tools cities can use to face those challenges.
It covers, among other issues:
The future of cities - opportunities, challenges and the way forward
Report: The future of cities - opportunities, challenges and the way forward
2 FEBRUARY 2022 future-of-cities-report-infographic.pdf English (774.96 KB - PDF)
Cities are hubs of innovation and creativity.Cities are key to achievingglobal goals.With a high amount of educated people and financial means and...
To create efficient, affordable, and inclusive neighbourhoods, housing in cities will have to be rethought.Housing becomes unaffordable in major...
An ageing Europe will struggle with challenges related both to growing populations in some cities and declining populations in others.22% of EU...
New technologies will transform how people move, live, work, and interact with authorities within cities.These technologies will need to be...
URL: https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-mission-statement-work-programme/facts4eufuture/understanding-our-political-nature-how-put-knowledge-and-reason-heart-policymaking_en (may have been updated since May 2023)
Advances in behavioural, decision and social sciences show that humans are not purely rational beings.
As a result, this report brings new insights to political behaviour.
It calls upon evidence-informed policymaking not to be taken for granted.
Contributing to the research that underpins this JRC report were:
There is a chapter dedicated to each key finding.
The latest scientific thinking as well as possible implications for policymaking are outlined.
The key findings from the report are:
Our thinking skills are challenged by today's information environment and make us vulnerable to disinformation. We need to think more about how we think.
Science can help us re-design the way policymakers work together to take better decisions and prevent policy mistakes.
We can't separate emotion from reason. Better information about citizens' emotions and greater emotional literacy could improve policymaking.
Values and identities drive political behaviour but are not properly understood or debated
Facts don't speak for themselves. Framing, metaphors and narratives need to be used responsibly if evidence is to be heard and understood.
The erosion of trust in experts and in government can only be addressed by greater honesty and public deliberation about interests and values.
The principle that policy should be informed by evidence is under serious attack. Politicians, scientists and civil society need to defend this cornerstone of liberal democracy.
The report "Understanding our political nature: how to put knowledge and reason at the heart of policymaking" is available in English, French, German, Italian, and Spanish.
"Understanding our political nature" is the first output from the Enlightenment 2.0 research programme.
URL: https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-mission-statement-work-programme/facts4eufuture/values-identities-policymakers-guide_en (may have been updated since May 2023)
Countries all around the world are facing tremendous challenges such as climate change, a loss of biodiversity, or the fallout from COVID-19.
Democracies are well suited to resolve such challenges by taking into account various values, interests, and perspectives. However, recent years have also seen high levels of polarisation, the rapid spread of dis- and misinformation, a decrease in willingness to compromise, and sometimes outright attacks on democracy.
Politics itself is increasingly turning on a new axis. On top of traditional economic conflicts, cultural values and identity issues have become just as or even more important for politics today.
EU institutions are well organized to address economic issues, e.g. through economic impact assessments. However, as the cultural values cleavage emerges, the EU needs to acquire new tools to understand the new fault line.
The JRC report “Values and Identities – a policymaker’s guide” addresses these issues.
You can find more information on the dedicated Knowledge for policy (K4P) website.
Visit Values & Identities on K4P
"Understanding our political nature" is the first output from the Enlightenment 2.0 research programme.
Example copy, web page 8
URL: https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-mission-statement-work-programme/facts4eufuture/artificial-intelligence-european-perspective_en (may have been updated since May 2023)
We are only at the beginning of a rapid period of transformation of our economy and society due to the convergence of many digital technologies.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is central to this change.
We still know very little about how AI will impact the way we think, make decisions, relate to each other, and how it will affect our jobs.
This uncertainty can be a source of concern but is also a sign of opportunity.
The future is not yet written.
We can shape it based on our collective vision of what future we would like to have.
But we need to act together and act fast.
Europe must act to shape its own AI future based on our shared vision.
If we don't act, AI's impact on our lives, our thinking, our jobs and even our interpersonal and societal relations will be decided elsewhere.
Between 'AI for profit' and 'AI for control', Europe could embrace 'AI for society', a human-centred, ethical, and secure approach that is true to our core values.
Get it right, and AI will strengthen European sovereignty and enhance our well-being.
Get it wrong, and European values may be confined to the dustbin of history.
This report presents a European view of Artificial Intelligence (AI) based on independent research and analysis by the JRC to inform the debate at the European level.
Artificial Intelligence: A European perspective
AI comes with both opportunities and threats, and the balance will depend on our decisions.Get it right, and AI will strengthen European sovereignty...
The future of AI is being written now.Europe must act to shape its own AI future based on our shared vision.If we don't act, AI's impact on our lives...
To get AI right, Europe needs a coordinated strategy buildingon our strengths in research and industry;on our traditions in balancing the individual...
In the global race for AI, Europe competes with conflicting visions.Between 'AI for profit' and 'AI for control', Europe could embrace 'AI for society...
URL: https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-mission-statement-work-programme/facts4eufuture/beyond-averages-fairness-economy-works-people_en (may have been updated since May 2023)
Before the start of the coronavirus pandemic, slightly more than half of EU citizens considered their lives to be fair.
Three out of five Europeans agreed that they enjoyed equal opportunities in life.
Perceptions of fairness also differ markedly across countries and socio-demographic groups.
How people feel about fairness matters. It might influence their decisions and their happiness.
The fairness report addresses some of the most pertinent fairness dimensions in relation to a fair, inclusive and social European Union.
Beyond averages - fairness in an economy that works for people
The report offers:
The present report, “Beyond averages – Fairness in an economy that works for people”, was written before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic is still unfolding and many uncertainties remain. A growing number of evidence suggests that the health and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are being borne disproportionally by less well-off people.
The pandemic reinforces the need to address the challenges underlying widening socio-economic inequalities.
"Working for social fairness and prosperity" is a political priority of the European Commission (Priorities 2019-2024: An economy that works for people).
Mail to EC-Fairness-CoP@ec.europa.eu
Digitalisation and changing work relations require appropriate social protection and taxation systems.Non-standard forms of work tend to be more...
Northern Europeans mostly perceive their life as fairOn average, about half of European adults either strongly agree (11%) or agree (43 %) with the...
A slight decline in EU-wide income inequality masks an increase in Southern Europe.EU wide income inequality declined over the period 2006-2016.But...
Where you stand on the social ladder still strongly depends on your family history.In the EU, only 3 out of 10 people achieve higher education when...
URL: https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-mission-statement-work-programme/facts4eufuture/blockchain-now-and-tomorrow-assessing-multidimensional-impacts-distributed-ledger-technologies_en (may have been updated since May 2023)
Blockchain could enable parties with no particular trust in each other to exchange any kind of digital assets (money, contracts, land titles, medical and educational records, services or goods) on a peer-to-peer basis with fewer to no intermediaries.
Its potential for wide-ranging changes in the economy, industry and society is now being explored across sectors and organisations.
Bringing together research from six JRC units, our report "Blockchain Now and Tomorrow" provides multidimensional insights into the state of blockchain technology.
It identifies ongoing and upcoming transformations, and it sets out an anticipatory approach for applications in finance, industry, trade and public sectors, moving beyond the hype and debunking controversies.
Blockchain Now And Tomorrow - Assessing Multidimensional Impacts of Distributed Ledger Technologies
The rise of blockchain technology shows in the sharp growth in blockchain start-ups and by the volume of their funding.Massive funding started in 2014...
Beyond its well-known financial applications, blockchain has potential in other sectors, such as:trade and supply chains,manufacturing,energy,creative...
Blockchain is a tamper-resistant and time-stamped database (ledger) operating through a distributed network of multiple nodes or users.As such, it can...
A foresight and trend monitoring approach can enable policy preparedness and adaptation to today's rapid pace of change.Regarding blockchain...
Governments and public sector can leverage on blockchain to offer:improved efficiency,automation of processes,auditability,transparency andtrust.Using...
URL: https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-mission-statement-work-programme/facts4eufuture/china-challenges-and-prospects-industrial-and-innovation-powerhouse_en (may have been updated since May 2023)
China is rapidly becoming a major industrial competitor in high-tech and growth sectors.
It aims, through the 'Made in China 2025' strategy, to become a world leader in ten key emerging industrial sectors.
In these sectors, it strives to strengthen its domestic innovation capacity, to reduce its reliance on foreign technologies while moving up in global value chains.
The report "China – Challenges and Prospects of an Industrial and Innovation Powerhouse" analyses China's approach to attain a dominant position in international markets through a combination of industrial, research and innovation (R&I), trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) policies.
It also offers an evidence-based assessment of China's current position compared to the EU and US innovation systems across a range of dimensions, emphasising quantitative data on China's development.
It concludes that China has become a major industrial competitor in several rapidly expanding high-tech sectors, and may well attain innovation leadership in specific areas.
This is also reflected in the EU-China Strategic Outlook, which sets out concrete actions to seek a more balanced and reciprocal relationship given China's growing power and influence.
In response, the report highlights the need for the EU to boost its industrial and R&I performance and – given the complexity of the EU-China relationship – develop policies that can help ensure a level playing field for EU companies in China.
Meanwhile the EU may also want to consider the potential need for protecting strategic assets from foreign investors. However, in doing so, it should take into account the large benefits that may flow from industrial investments from abroad.
China – Challenges and Prospects of an Industrial and Innovation Powerhouse
Research and innovation (R&I) policy is central to the 'Made in China 2025' strategy.China's spending in R&I as a proportion of GDP is higher than in...
China is strategically expanding industries with the highest all-encompassing gains for its whole ecosystem.Chinese exports rise hand in hand with...
China's share in global manufacturing value chains has more than tripled from 6% to 19% between 2000 and 2014. This is driven by gains in...
The ratio of the number of EU firms controlled by China has increased rapidly, from 1.4% of foreign-controlled firms in 2007 to 8% in 2015-16...
The JRC report "China – Challenges and Prospects of an Industrial and Innovation Powerhouse" analyses China's approach to attain a dominant position...
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